Notizen
Gliederung
Where Is Technology Taking Us?
Next Steps In Computing
Dr. Hellmuth Broda
Chief Technologist Europe, ME & Africa
Member, Sun Vision Council
Sun Microsystems Computers
Hellmuth.Broda@Sun.COM
Informing Science Conference, June 20—22, Krakow
Agenda
Technology and the consumer
Technology Trends
The Six Webs
Ten Predictions
Jini technology supports service model
How Jini works
The service driven network
Charles Darwin
(1809 - 1882)
“It is not the
strongest
of species that
survive, nor
the most
intelligent,
but the one
most
adaptable
to change.”
Executive’s Technology
Competency?
The ClueTrain Manifesto
95 Theses
1. Markets are conversations
2. Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors [ . . . ]
6. The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media
7. Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy.
95 Theses (cont.)
30. Brand loyalty is the corporate version of going steady, but the breakup is inevitable—and coming fast. Because they are networked, smart markets are able to renegotiate relationships with blinding speed.
31. Networked markets can change suppliers overnight. Networked knowledge workers can change employers over lunch. Your own "downsizing initiatives" taught us to ask the question: "Loyalty? What's that?"
95 Theses (cont.)
76. We've got some ideas for you too: some new tools we need, some better service. Stuff we'd be willing to pay for. Got a minute?
77.You're too busy "doing business" to answer our email? Oh gosh, sorry, gee, we'll come back later. Maybe
83. We want you to take 50 million of us as seriously as you take one reporter from The Wall Street Journal.
www.cluetrain.org
Coming Technology Breakthroughs
Nanotechnology
“Wet” Electronics
Sensors
Connectivity unlimited
Electronic Commerce for everyone
Emergence of combinations of technologies designed to create efficiencies (Factor 4)
Critters On A Chip:
Wet Electronics
Robots controlled by eel brain
Bacteria on chips detect pollutants (bioluminescence)
Insects in sensors detect land mines, chemical weapons and narcotics
Rodent brains help identify new medicines
Where Will Technology Lead Us?
Software will run on all devices
Software is distributed everywhere on the network
Software is safe
Software allows a new kind of computing device: US$100: 4 chips ð 1 chip
Data Communication will bypass voice traffic in 2001 (The Yankee Group 12/97)
Eventually, “voice over IP” will become a free service
A Technology Future
C4S Convergence: Computers, Communication, Consumer Electronics, Content, Services
By 2008 an average adult will daily consume
 2700 calories of food
 3 liters of fluid (piwo?)
 30 GB of digital information
Unlimited bandwidth: 6.4 Terabit/s (1012) over a single sub-fiber ( = all the TV programs of the world plus all voice communication)
Soon bandwidth will exceed compute power!
Processors: 2 x in 18 months
Bandwidth: 2 x in   9 months
Gilder's vs.  Moore's Law
Three Bets
Sun's Big Bets (Investments)
The Six Webs
Traditional web
Entertainment
web
Pervasive
computing
web
Commerce web
Pocket comm- unication web
Voice activated web
The Traditional Web
Computer
Keyboard
Screen
Modem
Phone line
LAN
The Entertainment Web
Sit on your couch
Be entertained
Ambient intelligence
Follow-me system
Story telling
Video games
Mobile music
The Pervasive Computing Web
Machines talking to machines
Jini, federations of services
Wired or wireless
“Is it machine washable?
  --- hot cycle?”
The eCommerce Web
Business to business
Business to consumer
e-Market places
Procurements
Auctions
Integrated Supply Chain
Pocket Communicator Web
Follows you around
In your pocket
Personal communicator
my: position,
profile,
surrounding,
context
Proximity Services Surfacing
The Voice Activated Web
(a.k.a. “Dick Tracey Web”)
Voice activation
Agents, bots
Studs
Always on
Continuous
real time
Folie 25
Prediction 1
Prediction 2
Folie 28
Java Devices
Prediction 3
StarPortal
Prediction 4
Prediction 5
Extranets and Intranets Converge
Prediction 6
Prediction 7
From 10 to 50‘000‘000 Hits in 90 Seconds . . .
Prediction 8
Prediction 9
Prediction 10
The big transition
From our product centric industry to a service centric industry
Products (and content?) will metamorphose into services (Jini)
Light bulb ->
illumination lease
Five Years from Today?
Will we still be able to manage our systems?
Are enough System Admins on the Indian subcontinent
First large installations in free fall?
This Is How We Used to
Build Systems
Deutsch's Seven Fallacies
The network is reliable and homogeneous
The network is secure
Latency is zero
Bandwidth is infinite
There is (exactly) one administrator
Membership on the network is stable
The network topology doesn't change
Future: Mobile, Distributed Computing?
Do We Need A Novel Computing Paradigm?
Can we build systems that
Do not depend on a „central intelligence“
Are truly decentralized
Resilient
Dynamic
Don‘t need complicated setups
Can just form impromptu groups
Support a service model?
Or asked differently . . .
The Quest For Connectivity
Big Questions
How rich does the set of network-supported services become?
How can we interoperate without
a PhD in networking?
The Answer
Everything becomes a Network Service!
What is Jini?
Software layer (48kB) to
describe services to the net
Runs on all Java Virtual Machines (JVM) on any device (“from mainframe to toaster”)
Only the Front-End of the service is transmitted---Distributed Computing
Lease mechanism makes Jini resilient
End of all Protocols as we know them
The Problems Jini Solves
Building reliable systems
From unreliable parts
Without global knowledge
Scaling over space and time
Dealing with the network
Moore's law is an area law
Gilder's law is a volume law
Goals of the Technology
Reliable networks
Even with unreliable parts
Scaling
Over space, size, and time
Interfaces are more stable than
Implementations
Wire protocols
Hardware or software
Jini™, how does it work?
Jini™, how does it work?
Where Will We See Jini In the Future?
Desktop, portable computers
Printers, scanners
WebCams
Disk drives
DVD, mpeg, CD players
VCRs, TVs
Refrigerators, freezers
Alarm systems
Heart monitors
Heating / Air conditioning
Kitchen appliances
Automotive services
Automobile service and control bus
Massive parallel computing
ERP SW, ASP services
Machine to machine services and interaction
. . .
Examples for Jini Projects
FETISH
PABADIS
HeyWow
Throughput Engine
US Navy
Web Trader
Car Manuf.
Ford, . . .
Internet Switch
JEMS
Service Driven Network
How To make Use Of Technology Advances
Let the Young train the Adults
Technology without services is useless and thus worthless: invest in services
Encourage industry to “go services”
Governments can join the „Digital Nations“ project of MIT/Harvard http://dn.media.mit.edu/
Conclusion:
Technology Enables E-Commerce
Enable access to the electronic shopping
mall for everyone
Immediate globalization of business (for vendors and buyers), new service level needed (7 x 24)
Shrinkage of space and time
Turns our world into an “Equal Opportunity Global Village”
Task for our generation: Preservation of cultural heritage on the Web
May The Force (of Solaris) Be With You . . .
In The Name Of All Delegates: Dziekuje  to our hosts!
Folie 60