Where Is Technology
Taking Us?
Next Steps In Computing
Dr. Hellmuth Broda Chief Technologist Europe, ME & Africa Member, Sun Vision Council Sun Microsystems Computers Hellmuth.Broda@Sun.COM |
Informing Science Conference, June 20—22, Krakow
Technology and the consumer | |
Technology Trends | |
The Six Webs | |
Ten Predictions | |
Jini technology supports service model | |
How Jini works | |
The service driven network |
“It is not the strongest of species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.” |
Executive’s Technology
Competency?
The ClueTrain
Manifesto
95 Theses
1. Markets are conversations | |
2. Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors [ . . . ] | |
6. The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media | |
7. Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy. |
30. Brand loyalty is the corporate version of going steady, but the breakup is inevitable—and coming fast. Because they are networked, smart markets are able to renegotiate relationships with blinding speed. | |
31. Networked markets can change suppliers overnight. Networked knowledge workers can change employers over lunch. Your own "downsizing initiatives" taught us to ask the question: "Loyalty? What's that?" |
76. We've got some ideas for you too: some new tools we need, some better service. Stuff we'd be willing to pay for. Got a minute? | |
77.You're too busy "doing business" to answer our email? Oh gosh, sorry, gee, we'll come back later. Maybe | |
83. We want you to take 50 million of us as seriously as you take one reporter from The Wall Street Journal. |
Coming Technology Breakthroughs
Nanotechnology | |
“Wet” Electronics | |
Sensors | |
Connectivity unlimited | |
Electronic Commerce for everyone | |
Emergence of combinations of technologies designed to create efficiencies (Factor 4) |
Critters On A
Chip:
Wet Electronics
Robots controlled by eel brain | |
Bacteria on chips detect pollutants (bioluminescence) | |
Insects in sensors detect land mines, chemical weapons and narcotics | |
Rodent brains help identify new medicines | |
Where Will Technology Lead Us?
Software will run on all devices | |
Software is distributed everywhere on the network | |
Software is safe | |
Software allows a new kind of computing device: US$100: 4 chips ð 1 chip | |
Data Communication will bypass voice traffic in 2001 (The Yankee Group 12/97) | |
Eventually, “voice over IP” will become a free service |
C4S Convergence: Computers, Communication, Consumer Electronics, Content, Services | ||
By 2008 an average adult will daily consume | ||
2700 calories of food | ||
3 liters of fluid (piwo?) | ||
30 GB of digital information | ||
Unlimited bandwidth: 6.4 Terabit/s (1012) over a single sub-fiber ( = all the TV programs of the world plus all voice communication) | ||
Soon bandwidth will exceed compute power! | ||
Processors: 2 x in 18 months | ||
Bandwidth: 2 x in 9 months |
Traditional web | |
Entertainment web |
|
Pervasive computing web |
|
Commerce web | |
Pocket comm- unication web | |
Voice activated web |
Computer | |
Keyboard | |
Screen | |
Modem | |
Phone line | |
LAN |
Sit on your couch | |
Be entertained | |
Ambient intelligence | |
Follow-me system | |
Story telling | |
Video games | |
Mobile music |
Machines talking to machines | |
Jini, federations of services | |
Wired or wireless | |
“Is it machine washable? --- hot cycle?” |
Business to business | |
Business to consumer | |
e-Market places | |
Procurements | |
Auctions | |
Integrated Supply Chain |
Follows you around | |
In your pocket | |
Personal communicator | |
my: position, profile, surrounding, context |
The Voice Activated
Web
(a.k.a. “Dick Tracey Web”)
Voice activation | |
Agents, bots | |
Studs | |
Always on | |
Continuous real time |
Prediction 5
Extranets
and Intranets Converge
From 10 to 50‘000‘000 Hits in 90 Seconds . . .
Prediction 10
The big transition
From our product centric industry to a service centric industry | |
Products (and content?) will metamorphose into services (Jini) | |
Light bulb -> illumination lease |
Will we still be able to manage our systems? | |
Are enough System Admins on the Indian subcontinent | |
First large installations in free fall? |
This Is How We Used to
Build Systems
The network is reliable and homogeneous | |
The network is secure | |
Latency is zero | |
Bandwidth is infinite | |
There is (exactly) one administrator | |
Membership on the network is stable | |
The network topology doesn't change |
Future: Mobile, Distributed Computing?
Do We Need A Novel Computing Paradigm?
Can we build systems that | ||
Do not depend on a „central intelligence“ | ||
Are truly decentralized | ||
Resilient | ||
Dynamic | ||
Don‘t need complicated setups | ||
Can just form impromptu groups | ||
Support a service model? | ||
Or asked differently . . . |
How rich does the set of network-supported services become? | |
How can we interoperate without a PhD in networking? |
|
Everything becomes a Network Service! |
Software layer (48kB) to describe services to the net |
|
Runs on all Java Virtual Machines (JVM) on any device (“from mainframe to toaster”) | |
Only the Front-End of the service is transmitted---Distributed Computing | |
Lease mechanism makes Jini resilient | |
End of all Protocols as we know them |
Building reliable systems | ||
From unreliable parts | ||
Without global knowledge | ||
Scaling over space and time | ||
Dealing with the network | ||
Moore's law is an area law | ||
Gilder's law is a volume law |
Reliable networks | ||
Even with unreliable parts | ||
Scaling | ||
Over space, size, and time | ||
Interfaces are more stable than | ||
Implementations | ||
Wire protocols | ||
Hardware or software |
Where Will We See Jini In the Future?
Desktop, portable computers | |
Printers, scanners | |
WebCams | |
Disk drives | |
DVD, mpeg, CD players | |
VCRs, TVs | |
Refrigerators, freezers | |
Alarm systems | |
Heart monitors | |
Heating / Air conditioning | |
Kitchen appliances | |
Automotive services | |
Automobile service and control bus | |
Massive parallel computing | |
ERP SW, ASP services | |
Machine to machine services and interaction | |
. . . |
FETISH | |
PABADIS | |
HeyWow | |
Throughput Engine | |
US Navy | |
Web Trader | |
Car Manuf. Ford, . . . |
|
Internet Switch | |
JEMS |
How To make Use Of Technology Advances
Let the Young train the Adults | |
Technology without services is useless and thus worthless: invest in services | |
Encourage industry to “go services” | |
Governments can join the „Digital Nations“ project of MIT/Harvard http://dn.media.mit.edu/ |
Conclusion:
Technology
Enables E-Commerce
Enable access to the electronic
shopping mall for everyone |
|
Immediate globalization of business (for vendors and buyers), new service level needed (7 x 24) | |
Shrinkage of space and time | |
Turns our world into an “Equal Opportunity Global Village” | |
Task for our generation: Preservation of cultural heritage on the Web |
May The Force (of Solaris) Be With You . . .