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Dr. Hellmuth Broda
Chief Technologist
Europe, ME & Africa
Member, Sun Vision Council
Sun
Microsystems Computers
Hellmuth.Broda@Sun.COM |
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Technology and the consumer |
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Technology Trends |
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The Six Webs |
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Ten Predictions |
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Jini technology supports service model |
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How Jini works |
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The service driven network |
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“It is not the
strongest
of species that
survive, nor
the most
intelligent,
but the one
most
adaptable
to change.” |
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1. Markets are conversations |
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2. Markets consist of human beings, not
demographic sectors [ . . . ] |
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6. The Internet is enabling conversations among
human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media |
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7. Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy. |
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30. Brand loyalty is the corporate version of
going steady, but the breakup is inevitable—and coming fast. Because they
are networked, smart markets are able to renegotiate relationships with
blinding speed. |
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31. Networked markets can change suppliers
overnight. Networked knowledge workers can change employers over lunch.
Your own "downsizing initiatives" taught us to ask the question:
"Loyalty? What's that?" |
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76. We've got some ideas for you too: some new
tools we need, some better service. Stuff we'd be willing to pay for. Got a
minute? |
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77.You're too busy "doing business" to
answer our email? Oh gosh, sorry, gee, we'll come back later. Maybe |
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83. We want you to take 50 million of us as
seriously as you take one reporter from The Wall Street Journal. |
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Nanotechnology |
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“Wet” Electronics |
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Sensors |
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Connectivity unlimited |
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Electronic Commerce for everyone |
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Emergence of combinations of technologies
designed to create efficiencies (Factor 4) |
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Robots controlled by eel brain |
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Bacteria on chips detect pollutants
(bioluminescence) |
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Insects in sensors detect land mines, chemical
weapons and narcotics |
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Rodent brains help identify new medicines |
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Software will run on all devices |
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Software is distributed everywhere on the
network |
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Software is safe |
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Software allows a new kind of computing device:
US$100: 4 chips ð 1 chip |
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Data Communication will bypass voice traffic in
2001 (The Yankee Group 12/97) |
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Eventually, “voice over IP” will become a free
service |
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C4S Convergence: Computers, Communication, Consumer
Electronics, Content, Services |
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By 2008 an average adult will daily consume |
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2700
calories of food |
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3 liters
of fluid (piwo?) |
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30 GB of
digital information |
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Unlimited bandwidth: 6.4 Terabit/s (1012)
over a single sub-fiber ( = all the TV programs of the world plus all voice
communication) |
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Soon bandwidth will exceed compute power! |
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Processors: 2 x in 18 months |
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Bandwidth: 2 x in 9 months |
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Traditional web |
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Entertainment
web |
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Pervasive
computing
web |
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Commerce web |
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Pocket comm- unication web |
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Voice activated web |
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Computer |
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Keyboard |
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Screen |
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Modem |
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Phone line |
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LAN |
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Sit on your couch |
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Be entertained |
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Ambient intelligence |
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Follow-me system |
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Story telling |
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Video games |
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Mobile music |
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Machines talking to machines |
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Jini, federations of services |
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Wired or wireless |
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“Is it machine washable?
--- hot cycle?” |
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Business to business |
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Business to consumer |
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e-Market places |
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Procurements |
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Auctions |
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Integrated Supply Chain |
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Follows you around |
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In your pocket |
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Personal communicator |
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my: position,
profile,
surrounding,
context |
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Voice activation |
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Agents, bots |
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Studs |
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Always on |
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Continuous
real time |
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From our product centric industry to a service
centric industry |
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Products (and content?) will metamorphose into
services (Jini) |
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Light bulb ->
illumination lease |
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Will we still be able to manage our systems? |
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Are enough System Admins on the Indian
subcontinent |
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First large installations in free fall? |
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The network is reliable and homogeneous |
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The network is secure |
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Latency is zero |
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Bandwidth is infinite |
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There is (exactly) one administrator |
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Membership on the network is stable |
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The network topology doesn't change |
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Can we build systems that |
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Do not depend on a „central intelligence“ |
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Are truly decentralized |
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Resilient |
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Dynamic |
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Don‘t need complicated setups |
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Can just form impromptu groups |
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Support a service model? |
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Or asked differently . . . |
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How rich does the set of network-supported
services become? |
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How can we interoperate without
a PhD in networking? |
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Everything becomes a Network Service! |
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Software layer (48kB) to
describe services to the net |
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Runs on all Java Virtual Machines (JVM) on any
device (“from mainframe to toaster”) |
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Only the Front-End of the service is
transmitted---Distributed Computing |
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Lease mechanism makes Jini resilient |
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End of all Protocols as we know them |
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Building reliable systems |
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From unreliable parts |
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Without global knowledge |
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Scaling over space and time |
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Dealing with the network |
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Moore's law is an area law |
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Gilder's law is a volume law |
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Reliable networks |
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Even with unreliable parts |
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Scaling |
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Over space, size, and time |
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Interfaces are more stable than |
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Implementations |
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Wire protocols |
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Hardware or software |
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Desktop, portable computers |
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Printers, scanners |
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WebCams |
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Disk drives |
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DVD, mpeg, CD players |
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VCRs, TVs |
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Refrigerators, freezers |
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Alarm systems |
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Heart monitors |
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Heating / Air conditioning |
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Kitchen appliances |
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Automotive services |
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Automobile service and control bus |
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Massive parallel computing |
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ERP SW, ASP services |
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Machine to machine services and interaction |
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. . . |
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FETISH |
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PABADIS |
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HeyWow |
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Throughput Engine |
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US Navy |
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Web Trader |
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Car Manuf.
Ford, . . . |
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Internet Switch |
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JEMS |
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Let the Young train the Adults |
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Technology without services is useless and thus
worthless: invest in services |
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Encourage industry to “go services” |
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Governments can join the „Digital Nations“
project of MIT/Harvard http://dn.media.mit.edu/ |
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Enable access to the electronic shopping
mall for everyone |
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Immediate globalization of business (for vendors
and buyers), new service level needed (7 x 24) |
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Shrinkage of space and time |
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Turns our world into an “Equal Opportunity
Global Village” |
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Task for our generation: Preservation of
cultural heritage on the Web |
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